Update 24 June 2025
The maritime security picture in the Middle East remains tense. While the Red Sea has seen no major changes, the Persian Gulf is under closer watch following recent military activity involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
Red Sea situation
Despite Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Iran’s threats of retaliation, the Red Sea remains relatively calm. The ongoing tit-for-tat between the Houthis and Israel is expected to continue, but no major escalation is anticipated at this stage.
EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to assess the threat level as SEVERE for vessels linked to US or Israeli interests transiting the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden. For all other vessels, the threat remains LOW.
Persian Gulf risks
The Persian Gulf saw a spike in risk following US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites on 21 June. In response, Iran launched a missile strike on a US base in Qatar, which it described as a proportionate response. US President Trump dismissed the attack and subsequently announced a ceasefire. Both Iran and Israel publicly agreed to the ceasefire, although Israel has since reported a breach - an accusation Iran denies. President Trump has expressed frustration with both sides.
The ceasefire has helped reduce the immediate risk of further attacks on US military bases or commercial shipping. While the situation remains fragile, the likelihood of direct US involvement has decreased for now.
Iran’s Parliament has approved a motion to close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council.
According to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), through their JMIC Advisory Note Update 012, traffic through the Strait remains steady, averaging over 110 transits per day, with no confirmed disruptions to commercial shipping.
JMIC continues to assess the regional maritime threat level as SIGNIFICANT, citing uncertainty around Iranian state and non-state actors, mixed messaging, and persistent electronic interference - particularly GNSS jamming near Bandar Abbas and the Central Arabian Gulf. Some vessels are opting to transit the Strait during daylight hours as a precaution.
JMIC also reports increased congestion near Dubai and the southern Gulf of Oman, likely due to vessels awaiting further instructions. The organization recommends that shipping companies remain vigilant and maintain robust threat and risk mitigation plans.
In a notable development, China has instructed its merchant fleet to report all transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This move is seen as a precautionary measure amid rising tensions and follows the US strikes on Iran. While experts doubt Iran could sustain a full blockade, any disruption in the Strait would have significant global economic consequences.
According to Risk Intelligence, the most likely scenarios include:
- Continued missile strikes on Israeli port infrastructure, especially Haifa.
- Possible harassment or attacks on US or Israeli-linked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
- Less likely but still possible: disruption of the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on US military and diplomatic assets in the region.
Navigation disruptions and cyber threats
GNSS interference continues to affect navigation systems, particularly near Bandar Abbas and the central Arabian Gulf. Some vessels are opting to transit the Strait of Hormuz during daylight hours as a precaution.
Separately, a phishing scam has been reported by several ships. Fraudulent emails - claiming to represent Iranian and Houthi authorities - demand a $100,000 “transit fee” for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The emails threaten violence for non-payment but are poorly written and lack official signatures, strongly suggesting a scam.
What to watch
While Iran is reportedly unlikely to take steps that would alienate key trade partners or provoke overwhelming retaliation, the situation remains unpredictable. The use of asymmetric tactics and information warfare adds further complexity.
Shipowners and operators are advised to:
- Consult and liaise closely with their war risk insurers;
- Monitor updates from JMIC, UKMTO, and EUNAVFOR ASPIDES;
- Review and update voyage risk assessments;
- Stay alert to phishing and cyber threats; and
- Maintain contingency plans for potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Skuld will continue to monitor developments closely and provide further updates as needed.
Maritime Security Update: Increased risks to commercial vessels in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Northern Arabian Sea
On 14 June 2025, Iran issued a stark warning that it would retaliate against US, UK, and French forces should they intervene in its conflict with Israel. This was followed by preparations for diplomatic evacuations in Iraq and the withdrawal of nonessential Western personnel from Bahrain and Kuwait, signalling just how rapidly the situation could deteriorate.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) have raised the threat level for commercial shipping to SIGNIFICANT, citing concerns over direct and proxy attacks, as well as electronic warfare tactics like GPS jamming and AIS spoofing - particularly around Bandar Abbas.
Although the Strait of Hormuz remains open, traffic has declined dramatically. The number of cargo-carrying vessels transiting the Strait dropped from 147 on 9 June to just 111 by 15 June, an indication that shipowners are adopting a more cautious approach amid rising geopolitical risks.
There have been no direct attacks on commercial vessels to date, but the threat profile includes a broad spectrum of potential tactics:
- Drones and missile strikes
- Limpets and floating mines
- Swarm attacks by IRGCN fast craft
- Opportunistic vessel seizures
Vessels with perceived affiliations to the US, UK, France, or Israel are particularly vulnerable. Misidentification could be catastrophic, especially in high-traffic areas with disrupted AIS visibility, such as the waters north of Dubai and Sharjah.
Currently, the main threat to international shipping is collateral damage, which may change should the US and other countries become involved, or should the conflict escalate to a level where the Iranian regime is significantly threatened.
Red Sea spillover
While Iran’s direct reach into the eastern Mediterranean remains limited, proxy actors such as Houthi forces in the Red Sea may widen the conflict. Drawing from their attacks on over 55 vessels since November 2023, any spillover could include targeted disruptions at strategic chokepoints like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
In the coming weeks, the breakdown of nuclear negotiations and Iran’s non-compliance with IAEA inspections could trigger further Israeli strikes, intensifying maritime risk in a region already on edge.
Guidance for Shipowners and Operators
Maintain heightened awareness and adopt the following best practices:
- Avoid disabling AIS to reduce the risks of collision and mistaken identity.
- Use radar, gyro compass, and visual fixes to counter GPS jamming.
- Adhere to MSTC-ME routes, which benefit from coalition naval oversight.
- Conduct thorough pre-voyage risk assessments concerning ownership links to Western nations.
- Register with UKMTO and NAVCENT NCAGS before entering the Indian Ocean Voluntary Reporting Area.
- Maintain constant communication with UKMTO and MSCIO and participate in voluntary reporting schemes.
- Implement contingency planning covering crew welfare, rerouting, emergency response, and vessel speed adjustments.
Maintain vigilant lookouts for UAVs, floating mines, and fast-approaching craft.